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A Showdown Looms Between the President and Federal Reserve

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  • Interest Rate Showdown: Trump has previously criticized the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, but now says he will “demand” the organization raise interest rates, regardless of the impact on inflation.

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More signs point to a growing American economy, but a key question remains: what will happen with interest rates? The Federal Reserve has stated it plans to keep rates steady until inflation nears its 2 percent target. But, this approach has been contradicted by President Trump, who recently declared he would “demand” that rates be brought back down.

This could signal a brewing conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom Trump has criticized in the past. “It looks to me like he’s trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected, I don’t know,” Trump said in an interview. Despite his criticisms, Trump has also said he would keep Powell as Fed Chair “especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.” It’s now clear that, for Trump, “the right thing” means following his lead on rate cuts.

While Trump doesn’t have direct authority to replace Powell, he could make the chairman’s position uncomfortable enough to prompt resignation. Either way, Powell’s term ends in May 2026, at which point Trump would likely nominate a new chairman who aligns with his policies—potentially a Republican majority Congress would confirm that choice.

For commercial real estate, a more politicized Federal Reserve and shifting interest rate policies could have significant consequences. Lower rates might stimulate borrowing and fuel new development, offering growth opportunities. But, politically motivated rate cuts, rather than data-driven decisions, could distort asset pricing and risk assessments, undermining investor confidence and destabilizing the market. Until we hear from the Fed at their meeting next week the market will need to accept a good amount of uncertainty.

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Propmodo Daily is written and edited by Franco Faraudo with contributions from readers like you and the Propmodo team.

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