Are Increasing Blackouts Inevitable for Real Estate as Grid Pressures Mount?

• Powerless: Blackouts could increase 100 times by 2030 as power demand surges, pushing commercial real estate owners to rethink building resilience.

• Inventory light: Once highly sought after warehouse properties are experiencing elevated vacancies due to worries over the trade war.

• Safer by law: Florida has enacted a new law that adds additional requirements for multifamily managers.

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Editor’s Pick

Are Increasing Blackouts Inevitable for Real Estate as Grid Pressures Mount?

A new report from the U.S. Department of Energy warns that blackouts across the country could increase 100-fold by 2030 if trends of power plant retirements and soaring electricity demand continue unchecked. While the numbers are alarming on their own, the real estate industry — particularly commercial owners and developers — may face a wake-up call about the resilience of their buildings and business models in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

The DOE’s analysis, released Monday, outlines a methodology for pinpointing regions at high risk of outages and guiding federal interventions to bolster grid reliability. Central to the findings is a projected surge in electricity demand, particularly from data centers, AI infrastructure, and the electrification of various aspects of everyday life, including heating and vehicle fleets. 

According to the report, data center growth alone is expected to require an additional 50 GW of new peak capacity by 2030, a staggering figure that underscores the increasing energy demands of a digital economy.

For commercial real estate, this presents a dual-edged challenge. On one side, tenants are demanding ever-higher standards of uptime and operational resilience. On the other hand, rising energy volatility and the threat of blackouts could undermine property values, disrupt leasing activity, and sharply increase operational costs.

Beyond energy costs and emissions goals, an energy reliability crisis has direct implications for building design and capital planning. Owners may need to invest more heavily in microgrids, on-site generation, and resilient infrastructure to secure long-term tenant commitments. For new developments, energy resilience could become as critical to leasing success as location or amenities.

Clean energy advocates sharply criticized the DOE’s methodology, arguing it exaggerates blackout risks and undervalues wind, solar, and battery storage. Sierra Club’s Greg Wannier called it an attempt to push the false narrative that America depends on outdated coal and gas, warning that any federal move to override state planning and keep retiring plants open would be an “extraordinary and unlawful overreach,” undermining existing regulatory processes designed to meet demand at the lowest cost.

While controversial, the DOE’s new report crystallizes a pressing reality: the electric grid challenges of the coming decade won’t be solved by any single technology or policy. For the commercial real estate industry, the path forward may require a more nuanced strategy that balances decarbonization with grid reliability and prepares assets for an electrified and unpredictable future.

Overheard

Warehouse Vacancies Surge Past 7%, Marking a Post-Pandemic Reset

After years of robust growth, the U.S. warehouse sector is now grappling with its highest vacancy rate in over a decade. According to Cushman & Wakefield, warehouse vacancies rose to 7.1% in the second quarter, up from 6.1% a year ago, and the first time above 7% since 2014.

A combination of shifting trade policies and pandemic-era overbuilding has left the sector in a state of flux. Retailers and manufacturers rushed to stockpile inventory ahead of anticipated tariffs, then quickly pulled back as duties were implemented under the Trump administration. Many tenants are now working to shed surplus space. U.S. sublease listings hit a record 225 million square feet in the second quarter, up 25% year-over-year, according to Savills.

Developers, reacting to softened demand, have sharply reduced the number of new construction starts. Newly delivered space dropped 45% from last year. Rents remain resilient, though, climbing 3% to an average $10.12 per square foot, reflecting long-term confidence despite short-term softness.

The surge in vacancy marks a clear pivot from the pandemic-fueled warehouse rush. As companies recalibrate their supply chains and reassess inventory strategies, the industrial real estate market is facing a defining moment where adaptability and strategic positioning will be crucial for both landlords and investors.

Florida’s New Security Law Just Changed Apartment Management

Florida has added a new requirement to every apartment operator’s compliance checklist. Prompted by the 2021 murder of 19-year-old Miya Marcano—who was killed in her Orlando apartment by a maintenance worker who used a spare key fob to enter—“Miya’s Law” now mandates stricter security protocols for multifamily properties. As of July 1, the law requires staff to give at least 24 hours’ written notice before entering any unit and for landlords to keep detailed entry logs for every apartment.

One of the most significant operational shifts comes from new master key tracking requirements. Every property must keep a documented list of who holds master keys and keep access records for two full years. That means apartment operators can no longer rely on loose systems or informal key handoffs—every entry must be documented and accountable. For buildings with high staff turnover or third-party maintenance vendors, this becomes an immediate logistical challenge. Processes that were once ad hoc now have to be codified, with supporting technology and clear lines of responsibility.

The law also forces a reconsideration of hiring practices. Background checks are now mandatory for all prospective employees, and not just the basic local ones. National screening is required, and the burden is on landlords to ensure they’re done properly. Property managers now face more than just operational overhead—they’re dealing with real liability. The implications go beyond Florida. Other states are likely to follow as regulators see that more could be done to help protect people in their own homes.

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Propmodo Daily is written and edited by Franco Faraudo with contributions from readers like you and the Propmodo team.

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