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Trophy Towers Outperform as Office Market Splits in Two

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

On Tap Today

  • Suite spot: The office market is gaining momentum, but the gap is widening between thriving trophy assets and underperforming commodity space.

  • Build slow and break things: Big tech companies are struggling to live up to their housing commitments in California’s regulatory environment.

  • Inflationary pressure: The new inflation numbers and the threat of a lawsuit are making the Fed’s upcoming decision even harder.

  • AI, data and energy: Webinar about how CRE asset managers are using AI and data tools to transform energy management. Sign up

  • Office-to-residential conversion: Webinar on data-driven metrics and insights for profitable office-to-residential conversions. Sign up

Flash Poll

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Do you know what your parking lot is worth on a high-demand day?

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Property owners that switch see an average 23% NOI lift in year one.

Office

The U.S. office market is riding its strongest first-half momentum since 2019, but the recovery is far from uniform. Leasing activity is up double digits compared to last year, driven less by organic job growth and more by companies tightening return-to-office mandates. While certain markets like Miami are approaching pre-pandemic attendance, others, especially on the West Coast, remain sluggish. The hoped-for surge in daily foot traffic has yet to fully materialize, though many landlords and tenants are betting on a post-summer bump as stricter policies kick in.

Space availability has started to retreat from its highs, slipping for two-thirds of tracked markets and hitting its lowest development pipeline in more than a decade. Trophy Class A assets continue to attract tenants, often without the aggressive concession packages weaker properties must offer to compete. A decisive “flight to quality” is underway, with financial services and insurance firms now leading the charge in large leasing deals, displacing the once-dominant tech sector. Investment sales are also showing signs of life, with more realistic pricing drawing in private buyers and owner-users, even as distress in the sector remains historically high.

For now, the market is split between buildings with the right location, design, and amenities—and everything else. Top-tier properties are holding rents and even posting modest gains, while commodity space faces an uphill battle against high availability and looming debt maturities. Whether this momentum carries into 2026 will depend on the delicate balance between corporate space strategies, the labor market’s health, and capital market stability. The gap between winners and laggards is poised to widen, setting the tone for leasing, investment, and development in the years ahead.

Overheard

Technology

In 2019, some of the world’s biggest tech companies rolled out billion-dollar affordable housing pledges to help address California’s worsening shortage. Apple committed $2.5 billion, Google and Meta each promised $1 billion, and the announcements generated plenty of good press. Six years later, delivery has been uneven. Apple has deployed more than $1.6 billion to support over 10,000 affordable units, as well as homelessness programs and down-payment assistance, but Meta has disbursed only about $200 million and Google still hasn’t started construction on any of the 12,900 approved homes tied to its pledge. Part of the problem isn’t the willingness to spend, but the difficult regulatory environment those dollars have to operate in.

Restrictive zoning rules, slow permitting, and community opposition can stall even the most ambitious projects. In some cases, companies are reevaluating their commitments. Google is exploring selling off land originally earmarked for housing. California seems to be a much harder place for these projects. In Washington, Microsoft has fully deployed its $750 million housing fund in the Seattle area, Amazon has spent $2.2 billion on housing near its hubs and is adding $1.4 billion more.

Apple's struggles show that private companies can speed up housing creation, but it can’t single-handedly overcome structural barriers baked into local development processes. Without regulatory reform, even billion-dollar commitments risk becoming stuck in the planning phase without providing immediate supply solutions. Success in this space comes not just from writing a big check, but from navigating—and sometimes reshaping—the policy landscape that governs where and how housing gets built.

Headline inflation stayed put at 2.7% in July, unchanged from June, as falling gasoline and grocery prices helped mask upward pressure from rising costs on certain imports linked to President Trump’s tariffs. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year, marking its highest rate in months.

The details reveal a shifting inflation landscape: while some tariff-affected goods like furniture, shoes, and appliances are seeing rising prices, service costs such as airline fares, medical and dental services are driving the bulk of core CPI growth. This suggests the cost-of-living crunch is spreading beyond goods and further complicating the macroeconomic picture.

The Federal Reserve finds itself in a bind. Inflation remains stubbornly above its 2% target, especially when stripping out volatile sectors, yet the labor market appears to be cooling, prompting markets to expect a rate cut as soon as September. Meanwhile, Trump has turned up his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he was "considering allowing a major lawsuit." If signs are not clear, the Presidential Pressure could be enough to convince the Fed to lower rates a bit faster than they might otherwise.

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Propmodo Daily is written and edited by Franco Faraudo with contributions from readers like you and the Propmodo team.

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