Monday, September 28, 2026
On Tap Today
Risky business: Climate risk is outpacing the models and money needed to manage it.
Grid locked: Oracle defers payment on a massive AI campus as power infrastructure lags.
Distressed listing: An AI-powered brokerage files for protection months after a major search partnership.
Infinite possibilities: A former Silverstein executive launches a new platform with a nine-figure Midtown buy.
| Daily Market Snapshot | ||
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | +39.28 (+0.51%) |
| FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs | 802.26 | −1.81 (−0.23%) |
| 10-Year Treasury | 5.17% | −4 bp |
| SOFR | 3.88% | 0 bp |
| Data as of market close September 25, 2026. SOFR reflects the September 24 trade date. | ||
| The S&P 500 rose 39.28 points, or 0.51 percent, to 7,743.41 on Friday as oil slid on signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, securing a weekly gain for the index. The 10-year Treasury yield eased four basis points to 5.17 percent, a modest reprieve for fixed-rate take-out math that still leaves refi underwriting pinned near 2007 highs. The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index slipped 0.23 percent to 802.26, its fourth straight loss, as REITs lagged the broader rally with cap rates still repricing against a benchmark above five percent. SOFR held at 3.88 percent on the September 24 trade date, keeping floating-rate carry on bridge and construction paper elevated as futures continue to lean toward an October rate hike. |
Presented by Prophetic
By the time a parcel reaches a broker, the pricing conversation is already competitive. Prophetic works upstream of that: parcel-level records with zoning, entitlement status, density limits, and verified ownership, so teams can identify sites that fit their underwriting and contact owners directly. One developer ran a first outreach wave to off-market owners and saw a 23% response rate against a 1-2% benchmark, recovering the platform cost before any optimization. The case study walks through the market, the filters, and the results.
Valuation & Lending
Insurance markets are retreating from disaster-prone regions, lenders are scrutinizing physical risk, and property owners are confronting a problem that existing models struggle to solve: putting a credible price on a catastrophe that may not happen for decades. As climate losses accelerate, insurers, lenders, and owners are calculating exposure across different time horizons, leaving no single party responsible for the full picture.
The consequences extend beyond insurance premiums. Without reliable estimates of future damage, the financial case for preventive investment becomes harder to make, while governments face political pressure to keep coverage affordable and uncertainty over whether federal disaster relief will arrive. At Harvard Business School, John Macomber is exploring whether institutions sharing the same geographic risks can pool capital to finance protection, rather than waiting for insurers or governments to step in.
Houston’s Texas Medical Center offers a real-world example of institutions collectively funding flood protection after billions in storm damage. Now, Harvard is bringing industry practitioners together to examine whether similar financing structures can scale across commercial real estate. The challenge is turning increasingly visible climate exposure into numbers that insurers, lenders, and property owners can all trust, before market exits and repricing force the issue.
Power Constraints Push Oracle to Delay $18 Billion Data Center Campus
AI Brokerage Seeks Chapter 11 Protection Three Months After National Expansion
Former Silverstein Chief Makes $245 Million Midtown Bet With New Platform
Overheard
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